Wiki · Reference entry
p(doom)
One person's own estimate of the probability that AI ends in catastrophe.
A chance-of-rain forecast is useful because everyone agrees what counts as rain, where, and over which hours. p(doom), read “p of doom,” is the same kind of number with those parts often left blank. People mean different things by doom, from human extinction to a permanent loss of control to a disaster short of either, and they pick different time windows, from this decade to ever. Two figures can be compared only when both say which outcome and which window they mean. It is a stated belief, not a measurement.
Why it matters
A probability with no stated outcome and no deadline cannot be checked against anything. Ask for the definition and the reasoning, not only the number.